| ||||||
 | |  | |  | |  | |  | |  |
OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT |
IN DEFENSE OF OBAMA # 4...Issue: ELECTABILITY (Ranjit Singh) |
NEW YORK
June 02,08.
IN DEFENSE OF OBAMA.
Issue: OBAMA’S ELECTABILITY
Democratic Primaries will come to an end, tomorrow, June 3rd. Whereas,
the Obama campaign declares that the race is over and they are about to
clinch the nomination, the Clinton Campaign puts a brake on their assertion,
saying that race is not over. But the voters, anxiously, wait for the results.
The nomination battle, now, revolves around two arguments.
1st: The argument that favors Senator Obama that the race ends as soon as
any one reaches the finishing line of 2118 delegates. (Previously 2026). By
tomorrow, June 3rd, or latest by weekend, he will cross that finish line.
2nd: The argument that is being put forward by Senator Clinton that she is
more electable than Senator Obama as opposed to Senator John McCaine.
Her argument: she has more popular votes. This involves changing the rules
of nomination.
WHO WILL DECIDE?
The ball is in DNC’S court. It is not yet public, which argument will prevail But
there are indications that they will not change the rules, from delegates-
backing to popular-vote issue. If they had any intention of changing the rules,
they would not have cared to seat Florida and Michigen. Election results were
already with them. It could also be very risky to change the rules after the
game is over. Refusal to accept the new rules is not the same thing as
refusal to change the rules, already in force.
EVERY ONE’S QUESTION:
Whereas, the most analysts conclude that the race is over as the math is
against Senator Clinton, no body knows or says what her reaction would be if
and when Senator Obama is declared winner. Therefore, almost every one
who watches the elections carefully, is asking the question whether Senator
Clinton’s frustrations adversely impact the electability of Senator Obama in
November.
THE ANSWER:
In my opinion, it is an imaginary fear, which will not materialize. Here is my
argumentation, which I base on the findings of a survey conducted by the
Pew Research Center in January, February, 2008 and published in March.
Here are their findings.
1st: 36% of Americans identify themselves with the Democratic Party, 27%
with the Republicans and 37% with none.
2nd: Of the 37% uncommitted, 15% have leanings towards Democrats, 10%
towards Republicans, while 12% towards none.
3rd: This means that 51% of Americans favor Democratic Party, 37%
Republicans and 12% have not yet decided.
4th: In all 3 types of states-Blue, Red and Swing- Democrats are getting
edge.
What conclusions, can we draw? I would like to come to the following
conclusions.
1st:Since, this growing identification has been going on for quite sometime
and revealed in January, February, when Senator Obama had begun showing
his lead, he will not experience any adverse impacts. If the Americans had
any reservations for Senator Obama , they could have stayed with
Republicans or at least uncommitted.
2nd: Why are the Republicans losing edge? The answer is simple. The
Americans don’t like to see their economy weakening, leaving a trail of misery
for the middle classes. They no more like un-necessary military interventions,
which disrepute the nation and hurt economy. By no stretch of imagination,
can any one conclude that the Americans will flock to the Republicans, simply
because, the Democratic nominee is non-white. Issues will prevail over color
and race.
TWO MORE FACTORS:
Two more factors also will matter.
1st: “WHAT HAPPENED” FACTOR: The book written by a former White
House Press Secretary will have more than its due impact, as it fuels a fire
that is already scaring the people. Senator Obama who says, the war on Iraq
“shall not have been authorized”, will be its immediate beneficiary.
2nd: THE LEADERSHIP FACTOR: Both Senator Obama, as well as Senator
Clinton have displayed their vitality, organizational ability, motivational power
and issues-knowledge to the full. Again, it is beyond imagination to believe
that any of these two leaders will hurt the Party, if nomination is denied.
In this Presidential election, 2008, the Democrats will have a leader with
personality, favorable issues and compatible organizational structure.
Electability will not be worrisome. They only need to reach out to the
disenchanted few to tell them issues are more important than group loyalties.